外汇评论：（行情）调整时段

昨天的总结也许五五对开。三个不错的结果是美元兑日元，英镑兑美元和澳元兑美元 - 尽管后两者由于突破各自的下行通道所引发。但至于其他三个 - 欧元兑美元，美元兑瑞郎和欧元兑日元是不是有“明确的走势结果”，这我一直在寻找的...

也许另一个复杂的是英镑兑美元 - 我一直在寻找一个反转走高（比欧元兑美元滞后，并产生一定的利润）。这使得大的走势画面具有更大的复杂性，因此需要进一步的观察。基本的问题是1.1466高是否会持续争持或打破。我觉得下降趋势已经相当直接，但昨天使我感到惊讶的是，我真的还不是十分确定，这将需要更多的研究和分析。然而，美元进一步疲软看来似乎有些不可避免。

我只能舒适地画出近乎完美的逆转走低美元兑日元走势图。还有一个有争议而富有弹性发展的风险（即使一个小的新高可能性，坦白的说，未来几天的前景- 有可能1-2周 - 确实指向更大的波动）。欧元兑美元反弹如此坚定且明朗，为欧元兑日元提供了上升动力。这些成果仍然有进一步发展的潜力，虽然我不看到那么夸张的收益、以及更强势的走势发展。

我预料，澳元兑美元也将向上突破下行通道进行走高。这种恢复应该只是一个回调（可能在深度方面，欧元兑美元会有一定的影响......）总而言之，做一个提高明确走势方向性的结构更改是想当复杂的，因此必须十分小心。

我建议今天的稳当操作方法，就是先静观其变。运气好的话，我们应该很快就会看到一些更明确的走势结构。

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Time for an adjustment

Fifty-fifty could sum up yesterday. The three positive outcomes were in USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD – although the latter two were triggered by the break of their respective downtrend channels. The other three – EURUSD, USDCHF and EURJPY were not the “definite outcome” I had been looking for…

Perhaps another complication is that GBPUSD – which I had been looking for a reversal higher – lagged behind EURUSD, and by some margin. This generates a larger complication in the larger picture and will therefore require some further observation. The basic issue whether the 1.1466 high will hold or break. I had considered the downtrend to be quite a direct one but following yesterday’s surprise, I’m really not quite so sure and will require more investigation and development. However, some further Dollar weakness some seem inevitable.

I can only draw comfort from the almost perfect reversal lower in USDJPY. There is still risk of a noisy and whippy development – even with the potential for a minor new high and frankly the outlook for the coming days – potentially 1-2 weeks – does point to larger swings. That EURUSD rallied so firmly clearly provided the fuel for gains in EURJPY. These gains still have further potential although I do see less aggressive gains and more corrections developing.

AUDUSD also broke above the declining channel high – but was expected. This recovery should just be a correction (that may just have some influence on EURUSD in terms of depth…) However, being a correction and it raises the pdilection for complex corrective structures which could complicate things. Thus take care.

I would suggest a defensive approach today as things settle down. With luck we should soon see some more definitive structures.

Good trading

Ian Copsey