外汇评论：与昨天相似的一天

昨日后续美元汇率继续温和地降低。我不认为走低与整体并没有带来损失且仍有似乎更多的潜在亏损。总之，这些看上去并不像过于直截了当的开始，更可能是一段时间调整的发展轨迹。所以重点应该放在上半日来特别确认美元的低点，等待熊市反转以及发展迹象。

如果让我挑出一个温和走势的单一货币，那是英镑兑美元，我觉得他应该会以自己的方式再度走高。我并不是要表明，这一最初的走势将会特别强列，因为一个适宜的修正仍然会到期，但总体来说，我觉得这已经是相当不错的上涨潜力。

澳元兑美元是另一个有趣的配对外汇。它有一个潜在的双顶走势，如果触发将意味着相当的震荡摇摆走势，因为反弹行情，我们看到过去两天可视为一个独立的单元，因此将迎来另一个推高。所以这是二者选一的修正问题 ：不触发双顶 ， 或是直接反弹。

美元兑日元已经恢复了慢动作模式。它似乎有一个看涨后市，但我觉得欧元兑美元和欧元兑日元之间的平衡相当复杂 - 有潜力打破单个货币对的看涨观点。但要记住保持对走势的充分利用。

所以，这真是一个需要精细分析的一天。

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

Could be a similar day to yesterday

The follow-through lower in the Dollar was mild yesterday. I don't think the losses have yet found a low and overall there still seems to be more potential for losses to continue. However, these don’t look like being too direct initially and more likely there could be a period of corrective development. So the focus over the first half of the day in particular should be to confirm Dollar lows and wait for bearish reversal indications to develop.

If there is any single currency pair I’d single out for a modest move it’s GBPUSD that should make its way higher again. I don’t want to suggest that this initial move is going to be particularly strong because a decent correction will still be due, but overall I feel this has quite decent upside potential overall.

AUDUSD is another interesting pair. It has a potential double top which, if triggered would imply quite a swinging move since the rally over the past two days is a single unit and therefore will require another push higher. So it’s a matter of either a limited correction – without triggering the double top – or a direct rally.

USDJPY has reverted to slow motion. It appears to have a bullish outlook but I find the balance between EURUSD and EURJPY quite a complicated one – that has potential to break the bullish view through the individual currency pairs. Just keep the scenarios in mind to be able to take advantage.

So, really it looks like a workmanlike day.

Good trading

Ian Copsey