外汇评论：非农报告（NFP）提供的建议

美元疲软的大主题昨日继续延续。作为目标，能够成功取得比预期更强的结果。总体而言，有一个混合的结构，它是使人更加为难的一个潜在关联模式/强度匹配。话虽如此，短期内将出现和这上半日相当水平的相关性-也许直到非农数据（NFP）发布-这似乎是普遍认为相当一致的。

综观价格一目均衡图云雾区，4小时图目前能看到美元受明显阻力，并与云雾区产生的一个相对陡峭的角度。这表明，多方推力仍然较低 - 但并不意味着不会有较为缓和的深度回调以测试云雾区的另一个顶点。注意动能，在小时图中略显疲态，但4小时图仍暗示有更多的机会继续下行。

一旦发生明显的突破，那将需要更多留意。

澳元兑美元，我们看到双顶走势应验。它暗示可能已经形成了调整下滑行情，但仍然存在一个在上升走势之前有新的微小下滑风险。这仍需要一些注意和重视。

美元兑日元正在缓缓反弹 - 但我不能说它的上升已经走到尽头。它会形成在继续走高和转头向下的回调之间的一个走势。在高点125.04短期下跌的最低目标在124.13。然而，这是一个跟昨天的回调加深有一定程度不确定性的小误差。因此，最好要认准阻力高点，以确定下一步的举动。我不知道欧元兑日元的走势能否帮助解决这个小问题，但一旦它已经完成了波浪形态的发展它可以在横向结构上给予欧元兑美元更大的影响...

像往常一样，谨慎提前注意非农数据（NFP）的预期值和调整，以帮助您明确交易方法。

周末愉快！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

NFP to provide a resolution

The general theme of Dollar weakness continued yesterday. As for the targets, there was mixed success with stronger than anticipated follow-through. Overall, there is a mixture of structures that is making life a little more difficult in terms of matching an underlying correlated pattern / strength. Having said that, the near term does appear to have a decent level of correlation and for the first half of the day – perhaps up to the NFP release – that seems quite consistent.

Looking at the Price Equilibrium Clouds, the 4-hour is currently providing Dollar resistance and with the Clouds on a relatively steep angle. This suggests the main thrust remains lower – but does not imply that there will be no mildly deeper correction that could test the other extreme of the Cloud. Looking at momentum, it’s the hourly charts that seem mildly exhausted but with the 4-hour still suggesting there is a little more to go on the downside.

It’s beyond this point that will need more attention.

AUDUSD saw the double top fulfilled. There’s a suggestion that it could have formed a corrective low but equally there remains a risk of a minor new low before the upside extends. This will need a little care and attention.

USDJPY faltered in its rally – but I can’t say that it has failed completely. There is a certain fine line between further gains and a reversal lower. The 125.04 high fell short of a minimum target at 125.13. However, this is a relatively slim difference so with yesterday’s deeper pullback there is a degree of uncertainty. Therefore it’s better to look for the extremes to identify the next move. I’m not sure that EURJPY will help resolve the slight problem but once it has completed its current wave development it could provide a stronger impact on the cross and EURUSD…

As usual, caution ahead of the NFP and note expectations and breaks to help point the way.

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey