外汇评论：这是个重要的日子

昨天确实看到在欧洲大陆预期的纠正措施,并很好预测美元兑日元,而英镑兑美元和澳元兑美元仍有一定程度的模糊性。欧洲/日本货币组中有一个共同的特性，就是需要包含任何其他美元看跌的跟进而现在的风险将会更造成可持续的损失。然而,这并不是我喜欢的观点,但观察当前短期趋势的条件，增添了更多的复杂性,我们昨天看见欧元兑日元支持略高于回调位的目标位置,却仍然在令人满意的水平。我觉得交叉的发展可以提供一些指导其他两个内在货币对需要如何操作。

欧元兑日元仍有一些优势。然而,之前这一段潜在的显著波动决定它的中/长期的方向。我觉得它可以预测美元兑日元,将很好推动其发展，虽然有时欧元兑美元目前可以起到帮助。在这个过程中我们必须观察每个单独的货币对的发展趋势和相匹配的横向约束。然而,它看起来紧密而发展缓慢。我有一些初步目标订在交叉点而将需要观察更多的交易信号。当然，欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞郎有进一步的空间看到美元弱势，但目前这看起来幅度有限。

英镑兑美元和澳元兑美元似乎是在同一条船上。我想说,他们将引发强大的移动但我不太确定今天会发生。更有可能的是,修正的风险对于它们俩而言很低。然而,这确实有很强大的动力去走出特有的走势路径,远大于欧洲大陆的措施对美元兑日元的影响。因此,保持谨慎和注意判断。

似乎昨天一天延长了整个上半年的发展潜力，但也应该是强走向结束的一天。

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

An important day

Yesterday certainly saw the expected corrective action in the Continental Europeans, and also in USDJPY, while GBPUSD and AUDUSD are still in a position where there is a degree of ambiguity. In the European/Japanese group there is a common feature of needing to contain any Dollar bearish follow-through now else the risk will be for more sustainable losses.

However, that is not my favoured view, but an observation due to the current short-term momentum conditions. To add more complexity to the situation, we saw EURJPY supported yesterday a little above the retracement target I had set, but still at a satisfactory level. I feel the development in the cross could provide some guidance as to how the other two intrinsic pairs need to perform.

EURJPY still has some upside to go. However, it is suggesting a potential period of broad swings before deciding its medium/long-term direction. I feel it could be USDJPY that will drive the upside although EURUSD could assist from time to time. In this process we shall have to observe how each individual pair is developing and match this to the constraints in the cross. However, it does look like a tight and potentially slow development. I have some tentative targets in the cross and will need to observe for trading signals. Certainly, EURUSD and USDCHF do have some further room to see the Dollar lose out but for the moment this looks limited.

GBPUSD and AUDUSD appear to be in the same boat. I’d like to say that they’re going to trigger a strong move but I’m not so sure it’s going to happen today. More likely, the risk is for a correction lower in both pairs. However, these do have the power to take more independent paths when compared to the Continental Europeans and USDJPY. Thus, remain cautious and be aware of the alternatives.

It seems like the first half of the day should extend yesterday’s developments but there should be potential for stronger moves towards the end of the day.

Good trading

Ian Copsey