外汇评论：现在必须的证明

这是一个大部分时间都混乱无章一天。一些好的建仓，有的在正确的方向上，但有点超过计划的目标，上周我预期欧元兑日元逆转的支持和美元兑日元存在一个更大的下降 - 但在这个广泛的预期范围内。

最困难的部分就是确定所有这些是如何结合在一起。在欧洲组和英镑兑美元之间的冲突仍在继续，英镑稳定的收益 - 超过预期，但走势意义最少。美元兑瑞郎走低在一个正确的区域，并已经扭转，虽然尚未达到以小时看涨的背离优势，同时欧元兑美元小幅高走1.1379，但现在动态的小时图和4小时图呈现看跌背离。这使得欧洲组需要生成强劲升势来突破美元阻力位来增加更多的收益。在此之前，人们对局势将保持中立观望。

澳元已经成功地走高，它需要更多定向走势的明确定义。它现在仍低于大双底的顶部，但已是仍然可以得到很好支持和更有冲劲结构。根据我所得到的意向，欧洲组往往需要这样的走势——到达与之相同的位置 。

我所注意的是美元指数真正稳定以小时看涨背离。话虽如此，但这还需确认是否恢复上行...

总有一个宽广范围的美元兑日元的损失深度，处于以折迭朝向该范围的下端。然而，势头并不是真的乐于助人 - 但另一方面，欧元兑日元，在明显降温的更深修正之后我一直在寻找，因为它跌至139.03，看到了美元兑日元修正深化的相同下跌和更尽如人意的回调。有一个很好的每小时看涨背离，但欧元兑美元和美元兑日元哪个会将它拖高？理想的情况下，在正确的支撑下，它们应该是美元兑日元的动力集合...

看仔细。还有一些更多潜在的复杂无序的混乱，但是要注意休息，好好找下一个突破方向。

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Some confirmations required now

That was a bit of a snafu day for the most part. Some good calls, some in the right direction but a little off on projection targets, a reversion in EURJPY to the support I had expected last week and a much larger drop in USDJPY – but within the boundaries of the broad expectations.

The most difficult part is determining how all these fit together. The conflict between the Continental Europeans and GBPUSD continue, with the Pound making solid gains - more than expected but constructive at least. USDCHF made a low in the right area and has reversed although yet to take advantage of the hourly bullish divergence while EURUSD edged above 1.1379 but now sports an hourly and 4-hour bearish divergence. This leaves the Europeans needing to generate a stronger break of Dollar resistance levels to be more assured of gains. Until then, there is a particular neutrality about the situation.

The Aussie has managed to push higher and needs to make a more defined statement of intent. It remains below the larger double bottom peaks but has done so in a manner that could still support a more impulsive structure. This tends to place it in the same position as the Continental Europeans in terms of needing to make a statement of intent.

What I do note is a really solid hourly bullish divergence in the Dollar Index. Having said that, it does need confirmation of a resumption of the upside…

There was always a wide range to the depth of the losses in USDJPY and it chose to collapse towards the lower end of the range. However, momentum isn’t really obliging – but on the other hand EURJPY, after apparently spurning the deeper correction I had been looking as it dipped to 139.03, saw the correction deepen with the fall in USDJPY, and to a more satisfactory retracement. There’s a good hourly bullish divergence but which of EURUSD and USDJPY will drag this higher? Ideally, with the right support, it should be USDJPY that fuels the rally…

Take care. There are some more potential snafu’s but take note of breaks that confirm the next direction.

Good trading