外汇评论：迹象积极，但不全面

这是稳定的一天，美元回吐的情况出现在欧洲组和美元兑日元，而英镑兑美元决定着自己的命运，澳元兑美元未能坚定它的走势 - 而不是像欧元兑日元。那么，这告诉我们什么？那就是，在大局方面一直没有确凿的关键美元阻力断层。从这个角度来看，我们应该保持防守。然而，在欧元兑美元发展结构的细节方面，它似乎提供了1.1049的潜在走向低位，但可能不会打破。也许更重要的是我们应该考虑美元兑瑞郎，看它是否能够突破0.9501。这两个方面看起来非常重要...

然而，在另一方面，英镑兑美元并没有达到我昨日所希望得到的涨幅，但也并未打破看涨结构。然而，相对于欧元和瑞郎摇摆在4小时一目均衡图云雾区，英镑兑美元似乎坚定保持在高于其4小时一目均衡图云雾区上方。这看起来更为乐观，虽然有在另一天进行侧面移动到更低的温和风险。

澳元方面，一些经济释放后掀起高开后（不管是什么样...），很快就发生了走弱，并处在一个微妙的平衡位置，且在关键0.7818高点下方。这里周围什么发生变动将是非常重要的。

美元兑日元成功地突破了我详细描述的重要关键阻力，这最终会恢复到继续上行的走势。它的确应该进一步上涨，但同时伴随着早期的下移风险。这可能不足以使欧元兑日元直接压高 - 虽然我觉得这情况发生是迟早的事。这将是上半日欧元兑美元和美元兑日元之间平衡的下降。

所以，有一些连带行情，我不希望看到强劲的收益/损失，但我们昨天看到的是交易受到更多的青睐。

周末愉快！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文

Positive signs but not completely

A steady day, Dollar gains seen in the Continental Europeans and USDJPY while GBPUSD decided its own fate and AUDUSD couldn’t make up its mind – rather like EURJPY. So what does this tell us? Well, in terms of the larger picture there has been no confirmation of breaks of key Dollar resistances. From that point of view we should remain defensive. However, in terms of the structure that developed in EURUSD in particular, it appears to offer the potential to move towards the 1.1049 low but probably will not break. Perhaps more importantly we should consider USDCHF and whether it can break above 0.9501. These two levels seem to be important…

However, on the other hand while GBPUSD didn’t make the gains I had hoped for yesterday, it hasn’t broken the bullish structure either. However, compared to EUR and CHF swinging around the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds, GBPUSD does seem to have a firm hold above its 4-hour Cloud. This looks more positive although there is a mild risk of another day of moving sideways to lower.

The Aussie, after whipping higher after some economic release (whatever that was…) it quickly became subdued and is sitting in a finely balance position and below the key 0.7818 high. What happens around here is going to be important.

USDJPY managed to break above the key resistance I detailed as important and this brings it back into play on the upside again. It should make further gains but with the early risk of a drift lower. This may not be enough for EURJPY to pss directly higher – although I do feel this is going to happen sooner or later. This is going to be down to the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY in the first half of the day.

So, there are a few complications and I don’t expect to see robust gains/losses but more like the trading we saw yesterday.

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey