外汇评论：一个更具方向性的星期？

在过去的一周 -  也许是10日 - 市场围绕着进一步向好的氛围，但没有真正成为气候。它让我感到沮丧，更多对于果断进展的缺乏，使我产生行情将打破当前走势结构的想法。然而，它不能一直进行下去。确实，我不愿看到一个无法打破僵局的星期 - 最好的今天。我需要它！那么，在局部结构方面，我想我们可以看到范围稍大的发展，但似乎不太可能在中期范围内 - 在10天范围内 - 可能在今天也保持不变。然而，它总是值得密切留意的一个意外惊喜......

话虽如此，我看得出美元兑日元，欧元兑美元和欧元兑日元之间的平衡是非常脆弱的 - 基于欧元兑日元。我已经预见在交叉关系方面的持续增强。美元兑日元已经落后于它的发展，就像欧元兑美元，但我觉得交叉走势需要一个新的高度，这是相当困难的，因为无论欧元兑美元或美元兑日元只有其中之一足够牢固能够成为我的首选目标。随着希腊债务问题依旧，欧元兑美元没有太明确的下行风险是一个显著的问题...

即使英镑兑美元，我只要看涨，那里便会是直接走高的威胁障碍 - 虽然我真的不认为这将是扭转的潜在走高。所以我们再次看到，小范围内的风险似乎正在抬头。

澳元兑美元已经在过去的2-3周保持在一定范围。首先，它有向上的触头，然后下行，但还没有真正取得任何显著突破。它有潜力，但随后并没有真正确认下行所以也尚未有清晰的走势画面。

不过，虽然我不能肯定我们今天将看到更强的定向移动，但是我感觉到本周末会有清晰的天空。

祝您有个赚钱周！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A more directional week?

For the past week – 10 days – the market has been faffing around with intent but not really getting anywhere. It’s had me frustrated, more for the lack of progress in making a more decisive move that would make or break the current structures I have. However, it can’t carry on forever. Indeed, I can’t see the deadlock not being broken this week – and pferably today. I demand it! Well, in terms of the local structure I think we could see a slightly larger expansion of the range, but it seems unlikely that the medium term range – the 10-day range – may well remain intact today. However, it’s always worth keeping an eye out for a pleasant surprise…

Having said that, the balance I see between USDJPY, EURUSD and EURJPY is quite fragile – based on EURJPY. My outlook has been for further strength in the cross. USDJPY has been laggard in its development, just like EURUSD but I have the cross needing to make a new high and it’s rather difficult to see either EURUSD or USDJPY being firm enough to achieve my pferred target. With the Greek debt issue still rumbling and none too positively the downside risk in EURUSD is always a significant issue…

Even GBPUSD, where I am bullish, is threatening to baulk at following through directly higher – although I don’t really think it will reverse the underlying move higher. So once again, the risk of limited ranges appears to be raising its head.

Even AUDUSD has been holding a range for the past 2-3 weeks. First it pokes and prods the upside, then downside but hasn’t really made any significant break. It has potential, but then it hasn’t really confirmed the downside yet so there’s no clear picture as yet.

Still, while I can’t be sure that we’ll see a stronger directional move today, I do feel by the end of this week will have clearer skies…

Have a profitable week