外汇评论：市场令人五内翻腾

我不得不说，昨天是一个惊喜。我一直长时间看涨美元，但却没料到这样的发展强度。以至于，我产生了一点谨慎的想法。我的第一个想法是，也许我们看到一个循环，但是出于几个原因昨天的走势似乎并不应当视为循环。我们看见太多的不规则的三角形结构跨越于各个市场，对此我总是紧张地耸肩环顾。这些也许–没有绝对–一个看起来正常的三角形，可能演变成某种可怕的最危险的形态，利润将吸引这个怪物冲击行情的底线。

美元将会持续看涨吗？我是这么认为的。今天会将成果进一步扩大吗？也许，但不太可能很多…应该会是如此。目前，我看到一些小幅回调和跟进，同时出现了一些调整。一旦整合完成，我们应该看到一个更坚定的走势。

如果有更高几率的趋势–或至少是一个方向的走势–英镑兑美元在扩大损失方面十分显著，但我仍然觉得我们需要看到一个新的高位。然而，我觉得这可能需要一至三天的发展。

澳元的风险在于我上面提到的不规则三角形结构，……这不是产生一个强劲的定向移动的位置–尽管它将会发生于某个点位。

即使美元兑日元一直强劲，但我们看到124.43的高点难以于今日突破。这一水平和124.61皆是关键的顶部高位……而且它需要盈利，以帮助欧元兑日元摆脱走至接近137.97低位的困境。这是另一个难题，因为我仍然觉得交叉线走势上需要达到一个新的高度。这倾向于，欧元兑美元不太可能在这一点上看到更强的损失。

所以，各货币对之间有所混合，这意味着在任何更大的方向性发展趋势之前仍有潜在的问题需要克服。

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

The bowels are rumbling

I have to say yesterday was a surprise. I’ve been Dollar bullish for so long but had not expected the strength that developed. So much so, that I’m just a little wary. My first thought was that perhaps we were seeing a recycling, but for several reasons yesterday’s move doesn’t appear to be appropriate for a recycling. We had so many irregular triangles across a variety of markets that I look nervously over my shoulder all the time. These are probably – no definitely – the most hazardous formations that can look like a normal triangle but then morph into some hideous, profit sucking monster that hits the bottom line.

Will the Dollar gains follow-through? I think so. Will these gains extend further today? Maybe, but not by too much … most likely. Currently, I’m seeing some minor pullback and follow-through but then some consolidation. Once that consolidation is done with, we should see another firmer move.

If there’s any higher chance trend – or at least a directional move – then it’s GBPUSD which made a good job of extending losses but I still feel that we need to see a new high. However, I feel this could take a day or three to develop.

The Aussie is at risk of seeing one of those irregular triangles I mentioned above… It’s not really in a position to make a stronger directional move – although it’ll happen at some point.

Even USDJPY has been strong but could find the 124.43 high difficult to overcome today. That level and also 124.61 are key to the upside… And it needs to make gains to help out EURJPY which drifted lower to approach the 137.97 low. This is another puzzle because I still feel the cross needs to reach a new high. This tends to suggest that EURUSD is unlikely to see stronger losses at this point.

So, all a bit mixed and means that there are still potential problems to overcome before any larger direction trend will develop.

Good trading

Ian Copsey