外汇评论：微妙的变化

经过又一天的有限走势，伴随着多空之间停滞和微妙的变化。一开始，我期待英镑兑美元将走出一个更加高的位置被证明是错误的。下方1.5667低位被突破成为致命的一拳。与此同时，欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞郎会有一个相对安静的一天，走势将结束在区间交易也许尚未完成的时候。

我一直在双向看盘 - 显然一边看涨，一边看跌 - 无论是哪边发展的早期阶段，都可以当做一个催化剂，去促成它的走势结果。这里有一个需要抓住的重点，虽然我期待美元走强，后续走势可能不会太强劲。在这一点上我们必须看看接下来会发生什么。

因此，我们正在寻找其他线索，特别是潜在的交叉汇率。在过去的两天里，我们已经看到了欧元兑英镑持续下降，这似乎表明这一趋势将继续下去。在欧元兑日元出现了试探性看涨的走势，但仍处于结构的脆弱部分。它看起来好像预示美元兑日元能继续其升势，但是这并不能提供关于欧元兑美元更多的信息 - 如前所述，我真的不希望在这一点上强势的抬升。

至于唯一的其他货币对 - 澳元兑美元 - 它仍然徘徊在过去一个月的范围内。在我看来，有一个潜在的看涨形势，但需要确认，而直到这种确认出现之前我宁愿保持中立。

今天的情况总体而言，上半日看起来有着较为中立的交易区间，所以我们将看看如何发展并观察突波。我觉得这可能是美元兑日元有较强动力的一天。

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Subtle shifts

Another day of limited moves, but with some breaks and subtle shifts between bullish and bearish. For a start, my expectation for one more high in GBPUSD was proven wrong. The break below the 1.5667 low was the killer punch. In the meantime, EURUSD and USDCHF had a relatively quiet day, ending up in range trading and which may not yet be complete.

I have been running a dual count – obviously one bullish and one bearish – both in the early stages of development that could allow a catalyst to provide the outcome. There’s a catch here also since, while I am expecting the Dollar to strengthen, the follow-through may not be too strong. At that point we’re going to have to watch what happens next.

So we’re looking for other clues, potentially from the cross rates. Over the past two days we’ve seen EURGBP continue its decline and that appears to suggest the trend will continue. In EURJPY there has been a tentatively bullish development but is still at a fragile part of the structure. It does look as if USDJPY can continue its rally but this doesn’t provide too much information about EURUSD – but as mentioned, I’m not really expecting strong move at this point.

As for the only other currency pair – AUDUSD – it remains in the range of the past month. It seems to me to have a potential bullish outcome, but needs confirmation and until that occurs I’d pfer to remain neutral.

Overall today, the first half looks like neutral range trading so we’ll have to see how this develops and watch for the break. I feel it could be USDJPY that has the stronger day.

Good trading

Ian Copsey