外汇评论：像希腊般的悲剧

男子1：我要杀了你！

男子2：你不会杀了我！

男子1：是的。我要枪毙你。

男子2：好吧，那么杀了我吧。

男子1：我还是不杀你了。

男子2：OK。

男子1：可我也许会......

关于希腊债务讨论的“成绩单”。“漫无目标”甚至就是趋势发展的一个伟大目标，只是市场正在朝着这样的一个目标。它使图表看起来像一个2岁孩子般乱写乱画，这使得交易变得再次困难起来。在我看来，如果我们坚持在一个结果和另一个之间的中点，总好过像一个醉汉试图走在道路中心线上。

我的基本观点，如我刚才所说的，我感觉行情依然良好，但是在一个可发展的潜在预期之前，我们需要一个短期的决议来分辨行情。从我所能看到的结构上，也有一些建议，那就是美元可能扩大它的弱势 - 但对于所有货币对的交叉平衡存在着一点儿粗糙和预备性。

话虽如此，在美元上我没有任何战斗的力量 - 特别是对于欧元和澳元的货币对。美元兑日元似乎是另一码事。我期待它的反弹，但我不认为这将是直接的走势。我觉得依然表现出混乱的样子，像是2岁儿童的胡乱涂鸦。

不必多说，现在还不是时候尝试和挑选一个“全垒打”获得直接胜利。足够多的优柔寡断的迹象表明，它还没有出现任何带有走出困境的意义的线条...

交易顺利！

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A bit like a Greek tragedy

Man 1:      I’m gonna shoot you

Man 2:      You aren’t going to shoot me

Man 1:      I am. I’m gonna shoot you.

Man 2:      Ok, then shoot me.

Man 1:      I ain’t gonna shoot you.

Man 2:      OK.

Man 1:      But I might…

This is a transcript from the Greek debt discussions. “Nowhere” is a great destination for where things are going and that’s just where the markets are heading too. It has made the charts look like a 2-year old kid would scribble and has made life difficult once again. It seems to me as if we’re stuck mid-way between one outcome and another, rather like a drunk trying to walk on the central line in a road.

My underlying view, as I have described, remains firm but there a need for a near-term resolution before the underlying expectation can develop. From what I can see from the structure, there are some suggestions the Dollar can extend its weakness – but the balance across the currency pairs is a bit rough and ready.

Having said that, I would not fight any strength in the Dollar – particularly against the Europeans and Aussie Dollar. USDJPY appears to be a different kettle of fish. I am expecting it to rally but I’m not convinced that it’ll be direct. Such is the mess that the 2-year olds’ scribbles have made.

Needless to say, now is not the time to try and pick the home run. There are enough signs of indecision that it just doesn’t make any sense to go out on a limb…

Good trading