外汇评论：整合风险时刻存在...

本周行情基本上会提早在今天结束，而明天美国独立日的中断可能会抑制一个已经受到抑制的市场。这将是一个事实的扩大，这一事实就是希腊公投将在星期日举行，因此在周一早段存在交易风险，如果结果为通过，那将不会真正鼓励持有过多的头寸。因此，强大的可能性是，昨日美元走强很可能会发生回吐。在美国股市这个过程已经有所发展同时看起来也相对低迷。

因此，虽然今天仍有美元上涨的空间，但风险将于明天进行整合，而且将有潜在的扩展，直至公投结果公诸于众。希望这将会煽动强劲的趋势发展。

在美元兑日元方面我们正在接近市场需要做出决定的关键阻力。他没有任何一个明确的肯定方向，但它也可能存在有潜在的某种突破方式抑或是其他走法。尽管如此，有可能发生一个短周期整合，这将会以一种基础波浪的模式进行跟进。我甚至看到澳元兑美元也突破了它的预期但现在似乎还需要一个修正。

正如我昨天所说，欧元兑日元已经没有了自己的能动性，它需要外在推动的方式或通过例如欧元兑美元或美元兑日元，但是我所看到的是，明天似乎没有太大的潜力去促使定向的走势......

长假愉快！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Risk of consolidation at some point…

The week basically ends early today with tomorrow’s Independence Day break likely to subdue an already subdued market. This is amplified by the fact that the Greek referendum will be held on Sunday and therefore the risk on early Monday’s trading, when the results will come through, will not really encourage holding excessive positions. Hence the strong likelihood that yesterday’s Dollar strength is likely to be pared back. In the U.S. equity market this process has already developed and is likely to be relatively lacklustre also.

Therefore, while there could still be Dollar gains over today, the risk over tomorrow is for consolidation, potentially extended, until the referendum results are known. Hopefully this will instigate a stronger trend to develop.

In USDJPY we are approaching key resistance where the market needs to make a decision. It’s not a clear-cut certainty on either direction but does have potential to make a break in one way or the other. Still, there could be a brief period of consolidation is quite likely in order to set up the foundation waves for the follow-through. I even see this in AUDUSD also which topped out as expected but does now seem to also need a correction.

As I mentioned yesterday, EURJPY has no opinion on its own and needs to be pushed one way or the other by either EURUSD or USDJPY but from what I see, there doesn’t seem to be much potential for a directional move tomorrow…

Have a great long weekend

Ian Copsey