外汇评论：圈套一触即发

“不可避免”可能是公投结果的最恰当的描述。最起码，我几周来一直在说，欧元将会受到影响，并且是大影响。由此，我这几个星期一直在寻找下一步行动的最低目标。这种风险一直以来都来自一个非常凌乱的、模糊的结构，已经变得非常难以判断。不过，这也应该是最后一根稻草。然而，无疑沿途会碰到一些棘手的部分行情。有很多的情绪正在四处蔓延，处于凌乱的合并潜在风险正在深度修正，将有传统的Elliotticians（艾略特波浪理论）计算延伸波的数量和运行更正，因为它们无法走出适应的移动到自己应有的延伸波数量里。

奇数球模式是已被我采用的观测避险货币美元兑日元的。那么，它支持的结果是，最终结果将略低于我们现在的决定数值。我在未来6-12个月美元兑日元的走势上有一个非常强烈的想法，我们将要看看我这样的建议正确与否...当然，欧元兑日元也遭受打击- 因为来自欧元兑美元和美元兑日元崩溃的双重打击。继上周大规模差距之下，它总存在究竟修正有多深这么一个问题。好了，我们没必要现在为此担心...

在所有的骚动中，英镑兑美元一直保持着绅士般的姿态，是的，这将使得损失和继续保持其自然走势并存。令人愉快的是...澳大利亚方面，它已经取得了良好的开端，因此这一趋势将继续下去。

总之，大主题趋势将是受人瞩目的，但考虑到拉锯形势的紧张度升高，千万要以谨慎为妙。

一周皆赚！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

The noose has been set

Inevitable is probably the most appropriate description of the referendum outcome. At the very least, I have been saying for weeks that the Euro is going to suffer, and suffer big. There is a minimum target for this next move and one I have been looking at for some weeks. The risk all along has come from an extremely untidy and ambiguous structure that has been really very tough to judge. However, this should be the last straw. Still, there will no doubt be some tricky parts along the way. There are a lot of emotions being bandied about that will still risk messy consolidations and potentially deep corrections that will have traditional Elliotticians counting up the number of extended waves and running corrections because they can’t fit the moves into their counts.

The odd-ball is USDJPY that has been adopted as a safe-haven currency I have read. Well, there are supports and the eventual outcome will be decided a little lower than we are now. I have a very strong opinion on USDJPY over the coming 6-12 months and we’ll have to see whether my supports hold or not… Of course, EURJPY has also suffered – doubly of course because both EURUSD and USDJPY have collapsed. Following last week’s massive gap lower it was always going to be a matter of how deep the correction would be. Well, we don’t have to be concerned about that now…

With all that ruckus, GBPUSD has maintained a gentlemanly stance, yes, losing out and will probably continue to keep its reserved nature intact. Jolly good chaps… As for the Aussie, it had already made a head start and therefore the trend continues.

The general theme is ptty well known but given the heighted tension do be wary of whipsaws.

Have a profitable week