外汇评论：烦琐的市场

由于缺乏信息，存在大规模差距的每周开市几乎总是会出现问题。但总体上仍是一些小问题，交叉观察（普遍的）相关市场，更加一致的后市发展将开始成为一个可持续发展的趋势。当然，目前的问题是市场的杂乱无章化程度非常高- 比起一般的“大起大落”，识别关键波浪终结的过程将存在更大的风险。它也可以生成更为复杂的修正 - 不规则修正，阻塞区域构成和回调。我甚至注意到（特别是美元兑日元），这引起比正常行情更深的回调。他们没有违反任何市场规则，但肯定是在极端水平。

所以，耐心是必需的，直到市场有信心推动接下来的走势。这将会在今天发生？有可能（请参考上文......）但是，整体的结果应该和昨天的设想一样，这种情况将持续下去，我们应该找到并开始认识到，由此将取得像样的趋势移动。

作为一个背景说明，美元指数（他们的下降之后）已经发展出特别好的形式，在过去几天里，我们开始看到一些稳定发展。如果真是这样，这将结束近期不确定性的市场（对于美国市场所期待的崩溃已经太过长久了）应该开始平静一段时间了。

货币对方面，我会建议把更多的精力放在欧元兑美元，美元兑瑞郎和澳元兑美元...其他三个都涵盖在目前更加自主的发展力量之内，从而会发生更富有弹性的移动。

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A fiddly market

Massive gaps on the weekly open almost always cause problems due to the lack of information. There remain a few minor issues but overall, looking across (generally) correlated markets, a more consistent outlook is developing and which should begin to develop into a sustainable trend. Of course, the current problem is the high level of fiddly development - higher than average ‘ups and downs” that make the process of identifying the key wave endings far more risky. It can also generate more complex corrections – irregular corrections, congestion areas and recycling. I have even noticed (particularly in USDJPY) much, much deeper retracements than normal. They don’t break any rules but are definitely at extreme levels.

So, patience is required until the market has the confidence to fuel the next trend. Will that happen today?  Maybe. (Refer to the above…) However, overall the outcome should be just as envisaged yesterday and as this continues we should find the market beginning to understand that we’re due a decent trending move.

As a background note, the U.S. indices (following their drop) have developed particularly well over the past few days and we should begin to see some stability develop. If so, it would end to suggest that the recent uncertainty in the market (which has been anticipating the crash in the U.S. markets for far too long) should begin to become calmer for a while

Out of the pairs, I’d suggesting putting more focus on EURUSD, USDCHF and AUDUSD… The other three I cover have more introspective development at psent and thus more subject to whippy moves.

Good trading

Ian Copsey