外汇评论：尘封

昨天我们看到不同的结果，在一个特定的情况下，相当具有戏剧性的是 – 除了一个我曾预测的发展趋势，尽管它在昨天没有完全准备好...

所以......而英镑兑美元基本依照削弱兑美元目标区间的预期进行运作，欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞郎有机会将吸纳的时机跟进美元的收益。这是相当规范的变化 – 一般大陆货币通常发生兑美元的走软。下一步是什么？美元继续增加强度以对抗大陆货币或是逆转？这是给予英镑兑美元的非常关键问题，已经达到了一个重要的目标区域。欧元兑美元已经突破4小时价格一目均衡图云雾区，美元兑瑞郎含有跌破威胁，而英镑兑美元仍低于1小时和4小时价格一目均衡图云雾区。我感觉到这可能是看到行情在紧密范围内波动的一天，是市场决策下一个方向之前作为评估的状态。

如果昨天澳元兑美元触及周二的目标，则在紧随其后的是更为接近的热点目标。话虽如此，我不相信结构是合适的......这可能会使得行情进入另一个新低，但今天同样有可能形成一个细线走势出现在一个更深的修正之前。

昨天最大的惊喜是美元兑日元的走低......这个预测是我几个星期前做出的，但没有预料到会发生。这仍然意味着后市持续走低，而一旦完成完整的下摆，我们应该看到一个像样的回调。这将如何影响欧元兑日元呢？嗯，在某个阶段，两个货币对是开放双向的，但就目前而言，这两个似乎都是看涨，但比起另一个似乎都缺乏激进。显然，欧元兑美元和美元兑日元之间的相对平衡是关键，但总体而言，它们会是更好地遵循内在趋势的货币对，而不是交叉运行 – 而这在替代品方面的风险将会更大。

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Gathering dust

Yesterday saw mixed results and in one particular case, quite a dramatic one – but a development I had forecast although wasn’t quite ready for it yesterday…

So… while GBPUSD basically followed expectations by weakening to target areas against the Dollar, both EURUSD and USDCHF snubbed the opportunity to follow through with Dollar gains. That was quite a change from the norm – with the Continentals normally generally weakening against the Dollar. What’s next? Will the Dollar resume its strength against the Continentals or reverse? This is a very critical issue given GBPUSD has reached an important target area. EURUSD has already broken above the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud, USDCHF is threatening to break below while GBPUSD remains below both hourly and 4-hour Clouds. I sense this could be a day which could see tight ranges for the market to assess the status quo before making its decision on the next direction.

If AUDUSD hit target on Tuesday it was followed by an even closer hot on target yesterday. Having said that, I’m not convinced the structure was appropriate… This could allow another new low today but equally there’s a fine line before a deeper correction is possible.

The biggest surprise of yesterday was the loss of support in USDJPY… This refers to the forecast I had made some weeks ago but hadn’t expected it to happen just yet. This still suggests follow-through lower but once this leg is complete we should see a decent correction. How does this impact on EURJPY? Well, it’s in a place where a couple of options are open to it but for the moment, both seem to be bullish but one less aggressive than the other. Obviously the relative balance between EURUSD and USDJPY is critical but overall it will be better to follow the intrinsic pairs rather than the cross – which has a greater risk in terms of alternatives.

Good trading

Ian Copsey