波浪分析：外汇/贵金属市场展望

美元走强的理据越来越强

过去几个星期市场都颇为迷失。然而，自上周初对美元走强的证据已经与日俱增。事实上，当我看美元货币对，我不得不说，美元是看涨的。而领首的是澳元兑美元。经过一个不规则三角形后，澳元兑美元持续下跌。同样，当欧洲问题仍然里足不前，美元兑瑞郎的强度和英镑兑美元的疲软提供了对美元的支撑。美元指数一直稳步上扬，多时段的看涨势头也印证了其牛市成果。

渐渐地，当市场与欧元美元和其模糊的发展争扎时，我们看到了美元逐步增强，并保持美元的向上推力。这可能是一个渐进的发展，但我认为，用不了多久，这很可能会加速，并开始依自己的方向走。
至于其他货币对，欧元兑英镑，虽不是急速大幅度下跌，但开始越跌越低。正如我认为欧元兑美元的下跌将加快，欧元兑英镑亦保持看跌。事实上，英镑兑美元还有更大的下跌空间，当其目前的浪走完后，会有一个修正 - 横盘整理后再次走低。
'欧元兑日元处于一个令人费解的位置。欧元兑美元显然有望拉跌欧元兑日元的走势，但元兑日元的下跌空间有限，这表明，随着美元兑日元推翻更高并挑战125.85高位，它是作为一个平衡。
贵金属一直在稳步 - 但速度缓慢 - 下行进展，这种格局预计将在未来一周甚至更长时间继续。黄金白银在7月7日这周应以横盘整理/轻微回调展开，但两者总体仍看跌。市场长期以来一直试图找到金银的底部，但都失败。随着美元指数有望走高，贵金属下行将继续…
祝交易愉快!

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伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

The argument for a stronger Dollar is growing 
The past few weeks have been ptty unpleasant. However, since the beginning of last week the evidence for a stronger Dollar has been growing by the day. Indeed, when I look across the Dollar-currency pairs I have to say that the general theme is Dollar bullish. Indeed, the leader of the pack has been AUDUSD that, following a rather unpleasant irregular triangle, has made consistent losses. Equally, while the Europeans have been less than obliging in terms of making life clear, the strength in USDCHF and the weakness in GBPUSD have provided support for the Dollar. As a collective, the Dollar Index has been pushing higher quite steadily and with a general multi-timeframe bullish momentum it confirms the bullish outcome.
'Bit by bit, while the market has grappled with EURUSD and its noisy, fuzzy and introverted development, we are seeing the Dollar make incremental gains that should now maintain the Dollar’s upward thrust. It may have been a gradual development but I suspect that, before long, this is likely to accelerate and begin to take on a life of its own. 
As for confirmations from cross rates, EURGBP, while not losing out aggressively, is beginning to find itself slipping lower and lower and just as I feel the losses in EURUSD will accelerate we should find that the cross should maintain its general bearish outcome. Indeed, GBPUSD has far more limited room on the downside. From that perspective it does suggest that by the end of the current wave there could be a risk of a complex correction – a sideways consolidation before heading lower again.
'EURJPY is in a puzzling position. While EURUSD is obviously expected to pull it lower, there is limited room for USDJPY on the downside and this suggests that USDJPY should act as a counter balance as it reverses higher to make a more sustained attack on the 125.85 high. Later above…
The pcious metals have made steady – but slow – downside progress and this pattern is expected to continue over the coming week and perhaps beyond. These two should start the week in a sideways/marginally deeper pullback but overall both promise losses to come. There doesn’t seem to be much chance of a home run with these two. The market has long been trying to pick the bottom and having to give up. These do still have a little more to go and with the U.S. Indices expected to push higher, it does also suggest the downside in the metals should continue… 
Have a profitable fortnight

Good trading