外汇评论：我们需要更强的移动

对于昨日的进展我非常失望。我一直希望看到美元有一个强大的恢复升势，但它往往有始无终过于迅速。它并没有真正突破任何结构。其实这看起来相当有效 - 虽然低程度的发展杂乱无章到足以令人怀疑。来源于此的含义是，我们真正需要一个坚实的举动，长期的预测之一，才有真正令人满意的结果。在欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞郎方面，我们还没有看到美元的高点突破 - 因此在技术上还处于更大的范围 - 也可以在一侧有轻微突破。我们真正需要的是这个范围的突破...

这种谨慎是绝对必要的，因为英镑兑美元正在阻止欧洲货币的走势方向，升势突破1.5588，但它是完全按照计划进行的。欧元兑美元和英镑兑美元正在采取180度的相反方向走势概念？好了，没有什么是不可能的，我的确注意到在欧元兑英镑上的一些看跌势头，但是，这是否能成为一个需要牢记的戏剧性般截然相反的走势。

此举打压了澳元兑美元，使其如感冒一般。像它之前的日常校正，我注意到有类似的发展，但都在较低的程度，因此，现在可能会进一步看到横盘区间交易。有其他的货币对选择，但几乎不太可能......

至于美元兑日元...有些人可能听到一些来自东京方向令人血液凝结的恐怖尖叫。哪怕只是123.71上方的1点突波，也会成为破灭下行的点，似乎表明120.41低位是日常校正中的一个极端异常。话虽如此，此时在这个位置的好处是有限的。这取决于欧元兑美元决定如何影响欧元兑日元的过程。横向跌破135.68倾向于使之看起来走势将是更加温和的一面，之后我们将看到一些坚实的损失。然而，这使我重回欧元兑美元的讨论，讨论它将仍然在范围之内而且需要休整......

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A stronger move required

I was rather disappointed with yesterday’s developments. I had been hoping to see a stronger resumption of Dollar gains but it tended to peter out far too quickly. It doesn’t really break any structure. Actually it looks quite valid – although the lower degree development was noisy enough to raise doubts. The implication that comes from this is that we really need a solid move now, one of the longer projections, to actually satisfy the outcome I want. That in EURUSD and USDCHF we have not seen a break of Dollar highs – and therefore are still technically in the larger range – is also a slight thorn in the side. What we really need is a break of this range…

This caution is definitely required because GBPUSD is baulking the direction in the Continental Europeans with its rally above 1.5588 but which was exactly as planned. Is the concept of EURUSD and GBPUSD taking a 180-degree opposite direction possible? Well, nothing is impossible an I do note some bearish momentum in EURGBP but whether this can be such a dramatic polar opposite is something to keep in mind.

The move lower in AUDUSD also caught a cold. Like its earlier daily correction, I note a similar development but in the lower degree and this could therefore see further sideways range trading for now. There are alternatives but less likely…

As for USDJPY… some may have heard some blood curdling screaming from the general direction of Tokyo. Even just a 1 point break above 123.71 has dashed the downside and appears to suggest that the 120.41 low was an extreme outlier in terms of a daily correction. Having said that, the upside here is limited for now. Depending on what EURUSD decides will impact the course of EURJPY. That the cross broke below 135.68 tends to make it look more on the soft side and later could see some solid losses. However, this brings me back to the discussion about EURUSD still holding within range and the need for a break…

Good trading