市场展望：外汇/贵金属波浪分析

'美元预期走强 - 但首先应该有一个修正


在幾經爭扎後，欧元終於下跌到稍為低於1.0818低点 ，而它應再跌一些，然後指向一个双顶。美元兑瑞郎取得了稳步的上涨，同时英镑兑美元已经摆脱了美元的影响而走出自己的涨势。


所以，换句话说，一切答案很快揭晓。
在美元直接進入牛市前（英镑兑美元除外），我们预计有一个深度回调,這反映在澳元兑美元，美元兑瑞郎和美元兑日元上，它們會有适度的修正，美元兑日元可能比其他两个修正幅度要深一点。事实上，随着美元进一步反弹，我们很可能看到宽幅的波动，特别是在浪(iii)区域中的浪(b)。因此，对于长时间持仓可能要承担一定成本。

单独来看英镑兑美元，它走出一个相当緩慢迂回的趋势，並形成浪(iii)中的一個深浪(b)。它將會作巩固，而其他貨幣則會有方向性的走勢，在回復漲勢前先作深度修正。总的来说，英镑兑美元將继续筑底。

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我还要指出，欧元兑英镑正在寻找支持水平 - 仅用于修正- 但不像英鎊兌美元般的走法。总体而言，它依然看跌，因此最好找出修正高点后的看跌反转迹象。其他交叉盘来看，由于美元兑日元缓慢上升和欧元兑美元稳步下跌，欧元兑日元稳步下行。这两者都是由于看到了十字星的修正。不过，总体而言，欧元兑日元在大幅下跌之前正在稳步发展第一浪和应遵循第三浪方向 - 其实当美元兑日元已经突破了，欧元兑美元也可以看到下跌的迹象。


金属...哦，是的....何时暴跌呢？。我一直坐在这里想......“我真的需要看到一个像样的下跌”，因为美元指数正在变得有点强势。
祝交易愉快！

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伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

以下为英文版本：

'Dollar strength is expected – but first a correction is due


After all those struggles in the consolidation we have finally seen the Euro drop marginally below the 1.0818 low – should see a little more – but which is pointing to a double top. USDCHF has made steady gains while GBPUSD has shrugged off the Dollar and made its own claim to gains.


So, in other words, everything has finally come to fruition. 
'Before getting too directly Dollar bullish (excluding GBPUSD) we are due a modestly deep correction. This is implied in EURUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY, all three of which are due modest corrections, possibly USDJPY slightly deeper than the other two. Indeed, as this entire (Dollar) rally progresses we are likely to see some broad swinging moves, particularly in the respective Wave (b) of Wave (iii) areas. Thus, holding positions for longer periods of time could cost rollover points. 


To cover GBPUSD individually, it has taken a rather slow roundabout route, the lower degree development producing deep Wave b of Wave iii’s but is holding that structure relatively well. It seems to consolidate as the other pairs see directional moves and generates these deep corrections to retain the bullish outcome. Overall it should continue to make up ground. 
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I should also note that EURGBP is finding support levels – only for corrections – but does seem to be reacting in the same way that GBPUSD is developing. Overall, it remains bearish and therefore it is best to look for bearish reversal indications on any correction higher. The other cross, EURJPY is making steady downside progress, trapped with a slowly rising USDJPY and a steadily declining EURUSD. Both of these are due to see corrections that could see the cross hold in a consolidation. However, overall, EURJPY is steadily developing a Wave [i] and should be followed by Wave [iii] before the larger decline develops – when USDJPY has topped out and EURUSD could also be seeing losses…


The Metals… oh yes… what a timely collapse. I’ve been sitting here thinking… “I really need to see a decent drop” because the U.S. Indices are getting a bit 
tight on upside territory. So, the past couple of days have been really fruitful. There are still a few swings to go (true of the U.S. Indices) but it’s looking very constructive. 


Have a profitable fortnight


Good trading