波浪分析：外汇/贵金属市场展望

就在我以为我们会看到欧元兑美元恢复下跌的时候......事实并非如此。昨日高点1.1712只是没有在我的雷达上，但它已经完成了一个三进三同并在日常波浪（B）/（III）上有了51%的回撤。唯一的问题是，高峰期没有提供极大的看跌反转的迹象，因此我们至少需要一个看跌反转形态。还有其他的线索 - 一个很好的迹象是在美元兑瑞郎 - 这看到了波浪-B-/-iii到85.4％回撤-的一个深度回调。我们应该看到一个延续涨势 - 但我们也可以用这个作为一个突破水平，如果美元有任何进一步的损失的话。

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同样，英镑兑美元一直是一个尴尬的状态......从1.5329的整个恢复已经充满了问题，一个粗略的，易变的，杂乱的，肮脏的发展，看起来更加的纠正。不过，昨日则达到了1.5802 - 在波浪[III]上仅仅超过预测目标5点。从这里会发生什么事是很重要的。如果它可往后上方额外的迈向1.5929那就这样吧。如果失败，那么我们将直接看到这种下降。因此，警示依然存在。

欧元兑美元及英镑兑美元的发展出现了危机，并在出现不久看到亏损的恢复，紧接着是欧元兑英镑的循环增高。因此，我们应该看到欧元兑美元比英镑兑美元下降速度更快...
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同样，澳元已经恢复到了它周期下降的趋势，紧接着是它在波浪[iv]上的一个相当可怜虚弱的调整。我怀疑这种发展将会断断续续的 - 但是，像它经常做的那样 - 它可以为欧洲指出一条明路。

另一大事件是在美元兑日元下降到了120.41以下......这证实了125.85跟波浪（A）/（III）一样高，因此，我之前已经提醒过的较大周期性下降，目前正在发展。这也应该是一个相当波动的下降，我怀疑目前的调整很可能是一个复杂的区间内横向盘整。然而，这不能抗衡它的下行趋势。这很可能会减缓欧元兑日元的下跌 - 再一次，我能看到在更多的损失之前会有一个区间内横向盘整

最后，貴金属超过预期的有点动荡，但是从一个格局来看，我们非常接近反转的高點。我觉得我们有些额外的走低，但在波幅之间有一些小冲突。白银看起来已经达到其波浪（ⅴ）中的波浪（a），而黄金才刚刚完成它的波浪（ⅳ）。兩者走勢不太平衡，因此，虽然我的偏好较低，如果在现行的波浪 (iv)上有任何漲勢，也不影响大方向走势。大局观表明确实会反弹...


祝交易成功！

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伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

'It has been a ragged and tiring few months…


Just as I thought we’d see the downside resume in EURUSD … it didn’t. Yesterday’s high at 1.1712 was just not on my radar but what it has completed is a triple three and at the 51% retracement in the daily Wave (b) / (iii). The only problem is that the peak doesn’t offer great bearish reversal indications and therefore we’ll need a bearish reversal pattern at the very least. There are other clues – and one good one is in USDCHF – that saw a deep correction in the Wave -b- / -iii- to the 85.4% retracement. We should see this extend gains again – but we can also use this as a break level if there are to be any further losses in the Dollar. 
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Equally, GBPUSD has been an awkward so-and-so… The entire recovery from 1.5329 has been filled with problems, a sketchy, volatile, messy, nasty development that looks more corrective. However, yesterday it reached 1.5802 – just 5 points above the projection target in its Wave [iii]. What happens from here is important. If it can make that extra leg back above 1.5929 then so be it. If it fails, then we’ll see this decline directly. Thus, the warning signs are there. 


These developments in EURUSD and GBPUSD appear at risk of soon seeing losses resume following a recycling higher in EURGBP. Thus, we should see EURUSD decline faster than GBPUSD… 
Equally, the Aussie has already resumed its weekly downtrend following a rather pathetic, weak correction in its Wave [iv]. I suspect this development is going to be choppy too – but as it often does – it can lead the way for the Europeans. 


Another big event was the drop below 120.41 in USDJPY… This has confirmed the 125.85 high as the Wave (a) / (iii) high and thus the larger weekly decline of which I have been warning, is now under development. It should also be a rather volatile decline and I suspect the current correction could well be a complex sideways move. However, don’t fight the downside. This may well slow down the decline in EURJPY – which again, I tend to feel could see a sideways move before stronger losses.


Finally, the metals have been a little more volatile than expected but from a pattern point of view, we’re very close to a reversal higher. I do feel we have the additional leg lower but there is a little conflict between the depth of the losses required. Silver looks to have already reached its Wave (a) of Wave (v) while Gold has only just completed the Wave (iv). This is a little lopsided and therefore, while my pference is lower, if there are any gains above the recent Wave (iv)’s don’t fight the move. The bigger picture does suggest a rally…


Have a profitable week.


Good trading