外汇评论：非农（NFP）后遗症

随着美元兑日元跌破119.22，我们又有了另一种可能发生的结果，但没有一种是完全清晰的。在这里，我们将不得不更加敏锐地观察比例结构以识别这是否是一个纠正过程或冲击的一部分。我将从这种冲击中指出预期的高风险级别程度，因此我们需要确保预测准确。如果走势实在不规则，将意味着更多修正的结构。

这应该是欧元兑日元的协调，因为在跌势继续之前似乎并没有多少上升空间的缓冲。因此，基于欧洲贸易有停滞的风险，但是这应该引发进一步的进展。

一周皆赚！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

NFP hangover

The last two days of trading last week seemed to be out of sequence. Thursday saw a more volatile day while Friday, even with the NFP release, really didn’t move the market much at all. Clearly, yesterday’s Stateside holiday made for a quiet start to the week and this will probably extend into the European session.

When real trading resumes in a state of normality we need to be alert for any trading signals. I can’t see yesterday’s comatose trading continuing. There is a risk of a limited stalemate initially but I can’t see it lasting for too long and therefore follow the break. The Europeans look to be correlated and therefore the next move for the Dollar should be consistent across all three.

In AUDUSD we’ve seen losses into the projection zone but I’m not convinced this has completed its move yet. This does reflect a similar outcome to the Europeans in terms of an initial stand-off but then further losses.

With USDJPY breaking below 119.22 we have an alternative outcome but not one that is exactly clear. Here, we are going to have to observe the ratio structure more keenly to identify whether this is part of a corrective process or impulsive. I shall provide the expected high-risk levels for the impulsive and therefore we need to ensure that projections are accurate. If these are wayward, it will imply a more corrective structure.

This should be coordinated with EURJPY which doesn’t seem to have much upside cushion before the decline continues. Thus, through to European trading there’s a risk of stagnation but this should provoke further progress.

Have a profitable week