外汇评论：将动向筛选出来

美元兑日元到达120.22的回升比我所预期的更加深，而且它更加倾向于一个矫正模式，而非一个冲势。即使这样，这仍是一个深度的回升以至于这一位置的调整达到正常之中较为极端的程度，所以会存在有冲势的争议，但我们必须留意的是这种冲势的走势模式 – 或许它本就缺乏模式。那么后者将确认矫正模式的发展。而欧元兑日元显示仍在上行区域有一些小空间，这暗示了这两种货币对的下降应该重新开始。

交易顺利！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Shake out

The depth of the Dollar losses was always going to be an inexact process although one or two currency pairs exceeded their expected limits. However, it wasn’t all Dollar losses. While EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD all gained, USDJPY and USDCHF saw Dollar gains. In some ways, particularly in USDCHF, it has tended to set the trend in advance compared to the other pairs. As for USDJPY, it has become detached from the general Dollar direction and it seems likely to continue to retain its independence.

So will we see more? From a totally objective view it’s possible that the Dollar could deepen its losses. However, I have my doubts. Looking at the general structures and what needs to happen in the larger picture – together with the limitations some of the pairs have in their individual development, I see the risk more on the Dollar upside. However, it’s going to need Europe and North America to lead the way.

The deeper recovery in AUDUSD caught me out and has led to a situation where I feel that we shall either see a very deep correction higher ... or… I have the wrong structure. I’ve been trying to work through the development to reconcile the issue but there is some ambiguity so it’ll be worth reducing position size to wait for a more definitive outcome.

The recovery in USDJPY to 120.22 was much deeper than I had anticipated and tends to point more to a corrective pattern rather than impulsive. Even then, it was a deep retracement that hit the normal extremes for a correction in this position so there is still an impulsive argument but we’ll have to watch for the impulsive projection – or lack of. The latter would then confirm a corrective pattern developing. That EURJPY appears to have little room on the topside, suggests that the decline in both pairs should resume.

Good trading