外汇评论：弱势收尾

欧元兑日元似乎处于另一个市场，价格回升甚至超过了我所设想的阻力。它在小时图中也有开始放缓的早期征兆，但4小时图的势头似乎仍然坚挺。这在很大程度上也取决于美元兑日元的走势。美元兑日元昨天的弱势并不像我料想的那样深，这往往会使得上行目标推至更高。因此，欧元兑美元和美元兑日元之间的平衡也往往倾向于早期整合，但这两种货币对进一步走强也似乎得到暗示。然而，两者仍然都有一个不太确定的结果。

周末愉快！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Weak end

Yesterday began well but ended without the Dollar rallying. This also required quite a significant adjustment to the structures of several pairs – in particular GBPUSD, EURJPY and to a lesser extent USDCHF. Even after having made those adjustments – which in the end provided a clearer picture – I still feel that it would have been difficult to have followed them well because of several anomalies within the structure – extreme Wave C / III’s and one outlier ratio that does occur every now and then. However, as mentioned, these adjustments do seem to have brought the pairs closer together.

That said, we are facing another puzzle – although not quite confirmed – but the approach to the 1.1331 high is rather disconcerting. A break above this level would throw the general balance of all pairs out of whack once again. What is required to avoid this is another correction lower followed by an approach to 1.1331 – but without breach. Indeed, without having used this template, the adjustments in USDCHF and GBPUSD tend to correlate. Therefore, I suggest observing carefully to ensure this solution develops and avoids a break above 1.1331…

The Aussie was the easiest of all yesterday with the outcome almost point perfect. As it happens, it seems to have the same template as in the Europeans – although the rally could be stronger. However, before reaching its high do allow for a relatively deep correction for the position. This could provide the clue to where the top will stall.

EURJPY was another market where price rallied even above my resistance. There are early signs of hourly momentum beginning to slow but 4-hour momentum still seems firm. Much depends on USDJPY also. Yesterday’s weakness in USDJPY was not as deep as I would have liked and this tends to push the upside targets higher. So the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY does tend to suggest early consolidation but further strength in both pairs does seem to be implied. However, these two pairs do have a less certain outcome.

Have a great weekend