外汇评论：缓慢启动的一周？

最后。

市场终于意识到，美元不应该下降......它被管控在它应有的水平，不如说它像一个被拉伸的弹簧，很大程度上证明了美联储的利率决定，但在放之全局，它似乎仅仅是个小插曲而将被人遗忘。因此，上周五美元逆转走高是及时的。话虽如此，它也不太可能在今天扩大许多涨幅。大部分的动力应该发生在早盘 - 也许到欧洲市。这将不寻常地看到，关键的摇摆第一次尝试就发生高点/低点的破位- 除非有一个更强的催化。

因此，注意当天的早期阶段，并寻找快速交易的转机。

一周皆赚！

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Slow start to the week?

Finally.

The market finally realised that the Dollar should not be going down… That it managed as much as it did, rather like a stretched elastic, was quite a testament to the Fed’s interest rate decision but when viewed in the larger picture it would appear to be a mere blip that will be forgotten. The reversal higher in the Dollar on Friday was therefore timely. Having said that, it is unlikely to extend those gains by very much today. Most of the strength should occur in early trading – maybe into Europe. It’s unusual to see key swing highs/lows broken on the first attempt – except when there is a stronger catalyst.

So the problem to solve over today and maybe tomorrow is how deep the correction will be and which corrective structure will develop. There are plenty of alternatives… If there is any one pair that could see a swifter follow-through then it’s GBPUSD that appears to have a more direct move to its first reversal. Even then I’d be a little cautious because the rally we have just seen was a tad complicated and could include a misjudgement.

Other indications that tend to suggest the comments above come from the daily Price Equilibrium Clouds that are currently providing Dollar resistance that could hold for a while. In both EURUSD and USDCHF these Clouds are flat – so there will be risk of penetration but the current structures suggest that they will hold. Equally, observing USDJPY in particular, Friday’s alternative outcome of a dip lower developed and tends to confirm further sideways trading before it can break free.

The Aussie is basically in the same boat as the Europeans.

Thus, take care in the early stage of the day and look for quick trades in the reversal.

Have a profitable week