波浪分析：外汇/贵金属市场展望

美元漲勢持續

美元终于完成了下跌修正，未来数周应该会作一系列的上攻。唯一的例外可能是美元兑日元，虽然在长时间横盘整理并且发展得像一个三角形后，其出现一个更为乐观的预期。我们应关注现在到12月初美元兑日元看跌、而其他美元货币对看涨的情况。但在美元兑日元未突破上方关键阻力位，我会坚持目前的看法。

三个欧元货币对均有美元看涨的势头，并似乎有一个相当坚挺的持续涨势。举个例子，欧元兑美元有望跌破平价移动，而美元兑瑞郎应该突破平价。英镑兑美元预测会跌至1.4759。

澳元兑美元还会再跌，其已发展出相当复杂的结构，特别在b / iii会有深度修正。与过去一年的差异，在于它现在是在一个较低的浪[v]。理想情况下，当欧元兑美元到达周度的浪(iii)目标并展开58.6%回撤时，澳元兑美元便应找到低点。

交叉汇率方面，欧元兑英镑在复杂性方面已经跟上澳元兑美元。其大幅的修正和有限的回弹令我有点震惊。它正在下行的进展，如澳元一样，在下跌中挣扎着。我一直预期欧元兑日元也会扩大跌幅，它或会形成一个三角形，但我认为需要密切关注美元兑日元，提防它大幅下跌 - 随着欧元兑美元看跌，可能会看到一些惊心动魄的跌幅。然而，在这目前我不预期这会发生，只要记着有这个可能…

贵金属打了个嗝，并作反弹。这偏向确认白银低点已经到位，但黄金的情况不是很明确。过去一周的反弹不应该打破周图下降楔形的高点 - 虽然相对于过去几个星期它似乎在创新的高点。也正是从这个走高，我们将能够得到更好地把握黄金是否会再创新低。我仍然偏向这想法，但是，正如我在过去两周所说，我期望其保持平稳，等待更强的信号。

祝交易成功。

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伊恩.科普赛
英伦金融研究部高级顾问
国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

The Dollar upside is progressing

We have finally overcome the rather annoying deeper Dollar bearish correction and this should now set up a series of upside forays over the coming weeks. The exception may well be in USDJPY although for now there does appear to be a more bullish expectation following a long, long… err… long sideways consolidation that looks very much like a triangle. I have to admit that the prospect of a Dollar bearish USDJPY through to early December with a Dollar bullish outlook in the remaining Dollar-currency pairs is rather concerning but until USDJPY breaks above key resistance levels, I’ll stick with the current plan.

The Europeans pairs – all three – have Dollar bullish outlooks and do seem to have a rather robust outlook for sustained gains. As an example, EURUSD is expected to move below parity while USDCHF should break above parity. There are also some robust minimum 176.4% projections that need to be satisfied – in GBPUSD down at 1.4759. This should give a sense of the extent of the expected move…

Even AUSUSD has more downside, quite steady but as we have seen over the past weeks, it has acquired the habit of rather complex structures, deep corrections – particularly in the Wave b / iii position. The difference from the past year or so, is that it is now in a Wave [v] that should have a relatively defined low – but certainly not as robust as the Europeans. Ideally it should find its low at the same time as EURUSD reaches its weekly Wave (iii) target from where it will require a very deep 58.6% retracement. 

In the cross rates, EURGBP has mimicked AUDUSD in terms of complexity. I was shocked by the heavy corrections and limited follow-through. However, it is making downside progress but like the Aussie it is making hard work of those losses. I have been looking for EURJPY to extend losses also. There is potential for a triangle but I do think we need to keep an eye on USDJPY in case it begins to drop more robustly – which along with a bearish EURUSD could see some gut wrenching losses in the cross. However, at this point I’m not expecting it – but just keep it in the back of your minds…

The pcious metals hiccupped and whipped back higher. This tends to confirm the low in Silver is already in place but the situation in Gold is not quite as clear. The whip back higher over the past week should not break the weekly descending wedge high – although it does look like making new highs relative to the past week. It is from this move higher we shall be able to get a better grasp of whether Gold will make a new low. It’s still my pference but, as I have mentioned over the past two weeks, I’d pfer to remain flat and wait for stronger signals. 

Have a profitable week.

Good trading