外汇评论：回到基础

对于上一周的下半部分的行情我真的不是十分高兴。我看到美元的交替性更深层次的损失，但我认为美元指数以及尤其是美元兑瑞郎并不是真正适合更大计划的东西。所以，我有一个难题要解决，在美元指数方面。然而，结合在周五的报告以及在迷你周末假期里的更新，期望似乎也是发展良好。一些问题从这个角度上标志着，我们不得不再次重新启动的基础波浪，其中仍有可能潜在并发问题 - 尤其是在美元兑瑞郎和英镑兑美元，这将需要密切关注。

总体来说，市场目前的位置仍显得有些不稳定，需要谨慎。一旦解决，我们将看到一个更具有方向性偏向。

有一个有利可图的一周

伊恩.科普赛
英伦金融研究部高级顾问
国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Back to the foundations

I wasn’t really too happy about the second half of last week. I did see the alternative deeper losses in the Dollar but felt the Dollar Index and USDCHF in particular didn’t really fit into the larger scheme of things. So I have a puzzle to solve in terms of the Dollar Index. However, in combination of Friday’s report and the mini-weekend update, it does appear expectations have developed well. There are a couple of question marks from this point and having to restart the foundation waves once again, there could still be potential complications – particularly in USDCHF and GBPUSD that will need some close attention.

Added to that, AUDUSD has extended its gains and that triggers a larger adjustment in the daily structure. There are vague suggestions of a high but just “vague” at this point. This tends to suggest that, comparing the situation in the Europeans, could lead to some spiky development over the next day or three. It does look more likely that we’ll see further highs in the Aussie. The slight problem is that the rally has been so direct that there is a mild risk of misjudgement but which may be solved by observing for alternation.

When I also look at EURJPY, its rally has been strong and has also seen momentum remain firm. Here the question is whether we need a deeper correction to satisfy alternation and then find a new high – or whether we’ll see losses despite the lack of bearish divergences… USDJPY doesn’t provide too much information although it does suggest further gains. How quickly these gains develop and comparing to how EURUSD could still provide some initial swings, produces its own puzzle to solve.

Overall the current position of the market still appears somewhat erratic and requires care. Once this is solved we should see a more directional bias.

Have a profitable week