外汇评论：五味杂陈

我也不能说昨天的行情有什么显著性的错误。事实上，尽管存在一些小问题，我认为欧元方面发展得很好，紧接着是澳元。不过，困扰我的是昨天的行情那种无精打采的方式 - 特别是在欧洲市场。坦率地说美元已经没有真正表现出任何强劲的反应 - 这使我们只能处于防守态势，没有真正可见的坚实逆转迹象，反过来说，可以很容易地看到美元进一步损失的风险。

这并不是蓄势待发的一天。要小心，并确认突破...

交易顺利！

伊恩.科普赛
英伦金融研究部高级顾问
国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

Mixed feelings

I can’t say anything went dramatically wrong yesterday. In fact, despite minor issues, I felt that the Europeans developed quite well and along with the Aussie. However, what has bugged me is the lackadaisical manner of yesterday’s moves – specifically in the Continental Europeans. The Dollar hasn’t really shown any robust reaction to anything frankly - and this puts us on the back foot, not really having seen a solid reversal indication that, in turn, could easily risk seeing further Dollar losses.

From that perspective I’d rather look for confirmation of Dollar gains before putting too much emphasis on my pferred outcome. Even the sharp drop in GBPUSD in the European session looked really promising but there is an alternative that could see another rally. If there is any one promising factor, then it’s the 4-hour bullish divergences in the Europeans – and strangely no bearish divergence in the Aussie – but a solid drop.

So my mixed feelings stems from the mixed signals we have seen across the pairs. I could also factor in EURJPY that seems to need to rally, but does still have some downside that it could probe. The issue here is: which of the sloth-like USDJPY or indecisive EURUSD will drive this? Yesterday’s slippage in USDJPY was frustrating after I had thought it would follow-through higher but there is still the larger degree retracement support that I had highlighted last week. So it could actually provide a push higher but in the current environment it’s hardly a done deal…

It’s not a day to push out the boat. Be cautious and confirm breaks…

Good trading